← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Oct 22, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Lardot
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mechelen win | 50% | 1.90 |
| AS Eupen win | 25% | 3.96 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mechelen −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| AS Eupen −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne |