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Waregem 3–2 Anderlecht

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Thu, Oct 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win60%1.61
Draw22%4.44
Waregem win18%5.27

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem +151%1.90
Anderlecht +149%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.61
Under41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Jelle Vossen · Waregem
15'🟨Nnamdi Chinonso Offor · Waregem
19'🟨Alessandro Ciranni · Waregem
39'🟨Timothy Derijck · Waregem
41'⚽ (pen)Fábio Silva · Anderlecht
45'🟨Zeno Debast · Anderlecht
58'⚽Amadou Diawara · Anderlecht
64'🟨Jelle Vossen · Waregem
72'🟨Moudou Tambedou · Waregem
72'🟥Kristian Arnstad · Anderlecht
80'⚽Abdoulaye Sissako · Waregem
90'🟨Zinho Gano · Waregem
90'🟨Abdoulaye Sissako · Waregem
90'🟨Alioune Ndour · Waregem
90'⚽Zinho Gano · Waregem

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots11
5On target4
5Corners5
19Fouls14
8Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWaregemAnderlecht
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.34
box share (last 5)0.750.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days172.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueElindus Arena
19.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.603.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.008.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.173.86
elo1378.621629.04
elo momentum (last 5)-22.30-30.40
eye test v1-0.650.29
eye trend v10.260.02
first sub minute (last 10)53.8049.70
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.600.67
league points8.0016.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet11.006.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4078.60
possession avg (last 5)45.4045.60
rest days5.204.09
scorer concentration0.200.28
season ppg0.671.33
skill v1-0.36-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.80
squad age—22.99
state index-1.10-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.06-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.300.29
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.000.80