← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Boterberg
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Gent win | 60% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.33 |
| Mechelen win | 18% | 5.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Gent −0.75 | 55% | 1.88 |
| Mechelen −0.75 | 45% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.76 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand