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Club Brugge 5–1 AS Eupen

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Oct 15, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: E. Lambrechts

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win57%1.71
Draw24%4.04
AS Eupen win19%5.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge −0.7551%1.91
AS Eupen −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
30'⚽Thibo Somers · Club Brugge
39'⚽Ayase Ueda · Club Brugge
44'⚽ (pen)Stef Peeters · AS Eupen
49'🟨James Jeggo · AS Eupen
59'🟨Thibo Somers · Club Brugge
76'🟨Christiaan Ravych · Club Brugge
77'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
80'🟨Rune Paeshuyse · AS Eupen
86'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
18Shots2
10On target2
2Corners2
20Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeAS Eupen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.32—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.35—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.33—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.59—
cards avg (last 5)1.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
coach days44.0014.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.05
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.172.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.13
dominance (last 5)0.600.46
elo1616.591426.65
elo momentum (last 5)-25.51-19.98
eye test v10.13-0.23
eye trend v10.30-0.53
first sub minute (last 10)51.0058.40
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.05
keeper form v10.630.72
league points28.0012.00
league rank3.0014.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)61.4076.60
possession avg (last 5)43.0051.80
rest days5.896.09
scorer concentration0.220.22
season ppg1.331.00
shot diff avg (last 5)6.60-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.4012.20
skill v1-1.810.12
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.40
squad age23.2625.74
state index-0.11-0.62
sterile dominance v1-1.730.13
threat rate (last 10)0.300.27
threat rate (last 3)0.350.18
threat rate (last 5)0.340.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20