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Gent 3–4 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Smet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win58%1.65
Draw24%4.17
Club Brugge win18%5.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge −154%1.77
Gent −146%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.82
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Bruno Godeau · Gent
24'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
26'🟨Jesper Daland · Club Brugge
33'🟨Charles Vanhoutte · Club Brugge
49'⚽Hugo Cuypers · Gent
59'⚽Dino Hotić · Club Brugge
65'🟨Matisse Samoise · Gent
66'🟨Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge
68'⚽Hugo Cuypers · Gent
75'⚽Dino Hotić · Club Brugge
77'🟨Dino Hotić · Club Brugge
77'⚽Laurent Depoitre · Gent
89'⚽ (pen)Dino Hotić · Club Brugge
90'🟨Michael Ngadeu · Gent

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots14
7On target5
6Corners4
15Fouls15
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.28
box share (last 5)0.560.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days670.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGhelamco Arena
31.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.50
elo1626.801474.55
elo momentum (last 5)-3.22-25.95
eye test v1-0.48-0.11
eye trend v10.130.60
first sub minute (last 10)54.1050.60
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.720.64
league points14.006.00
league rank9.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8061.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8045.60
rest days14.1014.91
scorer concentration0.270.40
season ppg1.560.67
skill v10.41-1.76
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.40
squad age25.13—
state index0.41-1.04
sterile dominance v10.14-1.59
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.36
threat rate (last 5)0.250.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20