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Anderlecht 4–1 Kortrijk

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sun, Sep 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win72%1.33
Draw17%5.75
Kortrijk win11%9.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht −1.550%1.94
Kortrijk −1.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.55
Under38%2.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Yari Verschaeren · Anderlecht
29'🟨Dorian Dessoleil · Kortrijk
53'🟨Kevin Vandendriessche · Kortrijk
59'⚽Majeed Ashimeru · Anderlecht
61'⚽Faïz Selemani · Kortrijk
64'⚽Jan Vertonghen · Anderlecht
65'🟨Kristian Arnstad · Anderlecht
75'⚽ (pen)Lior Refaelov · Anderlecht

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots8
5On target3
9Corners6
17Fouls8
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnderlechtKortrijk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.540.58
cards avg (last 5)1.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLotto Park
coach days140.0017.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d6.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.09
corner diff avg (last 5)4.20-5.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.2010.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.472.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.13
dominance (last 5)0.500.34
elo1681.041420.22
elo momentum (last 5)-24.57-19.46
eye test v10.01-0.94
eye trend v10.01-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)54.9054.00
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.05
keeper form v10.730.74
league points11.007.00
league rank14.0017.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4076.20
possession avg (last 5)53.4045.20
rest days3.008.21
scorer concentration0.33—
season ppg1.220.70
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-9.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.409.40
skill v11.02-0.34
sot against avg (last 5)3.807.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.40
squad age25.9926.04
state index-0.04-0.73
sterile dominance v10.620.04
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20