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AS Eupen 1–2 St. Gilloise

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win49%1.99
Draw28%3.53
AS Eupen win23%4.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Eupen +0.551%1.90
St. Gilloise +0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Simon Adingra · St. Gilloise
18'⚽Boris Lambert · AS Eupen
20'🟨Mubarak Wakaso · AS Eupen
41'🟨Siebe Van Der Heyden · St. Gilloise
69'🟨Senne Lynen · St. Gilloise
74'🟨James Jeggo · AS Eupen
90'🟨Mubarak Wakaso · AS Eupen
90'🟥Mubarak Wakaso · AS Eupen
90'🟨Anthony Moris · St. Gilloise
90'⚽Victor Okoh Boniface · St. Gilloise

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots12
4On target3
5Corners5
8Fouls19
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS EupenSt. Gilloise
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.460.81
cards avg (last 5)3.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion am Kehrweg
coach days109.00109.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.18
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.641.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.19
dominance (last 5)0.580.54
elo1426.291710.32
elo momentum (last 5)-33.702.91
eye test v10.13-0.07
eye trend v1-0.22-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.9053.10
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.770.68
league points9.0013.00
league rank16.0010.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0081.80
possession avg (last 5)52.8051.20
rest days7.912.79
scorer concentration0.290.13
season ppg1.001.63
shot diff avg (last 5)4.202.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.4011.60
skill v10.230.55
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
squad age25.3026.57
state index-0.540.36
sterile dominance v1-0.410.72
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.310.17
threat rate (last 5)0.320.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40