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Oostende 1–0 AS Eupen

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Sep 10, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende win44%2.22
AS Eupen win30%3.16
Draw26%3.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende −0.2550%1.93
AS Eupen −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Alessandro Albanese · Oostende
45'🟨Jason Davidson · AS Eupen
51'⚽Nick Bätzner · Oostende
57'🟨Alessandro Albanese · Oostende
57'🟥Alessandro Albanese · Oostende
58'🟨Thierry Ambrose · Oostende
86'🟨Jerome Deom · AS Eupen
87'🟨Zech Medley · Oostende
89'🟨Mubarak Wakaso · AS Eupen
90'🟨Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Oostende

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots13
5On target3
3Corners6
14Fouls19
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOostendeAS Eupen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.630.52
cards avg (last 5)2.003.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDiaz Arena
coach days221.00101.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.632.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.480.52
elo1445.041434.28
elo momentum (last 5)-37.77-32.15
eye test v10.200.27
eye trend v1-0.04-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)56.0058.50
form points (last 5)0.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.690.77
league points6.009.00
league rank18.0014.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4075.40
possession avg (last 5)44.2049.20
rest days6.907.00
scorer concentration0.430.29
season ppg0.751.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6014.60
skill v1-0.75-0.15
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.40
squad age24.1224.66
state index-0.92-0.64
sterile dominance v1-0.62-0.65
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.290.30
threat rate (last 5)0.270.32
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60