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AS Eupen 0–1 Kortrijk

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 Β· Sat, Sep 3, 04:15 PM UTC Β· ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Eupen win47%2.03
Draw27%3.65
Kortrijk win26%3.74

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk βˆ’0.552%1.86
AS Eupen βˆ’0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.86
Under48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Satoshi Tanaka · Kortrijk
14'🟨Jason Davidson · AS Eupen
33'🟨Didier Lamkel Zé · Kortrijk
49'🟨Konan N'Dri · AS Eupen
67'🟨Isaac Christie-Davies · AS Eupen
81'⚽Dylan Mbayo · Kortrijk
83'🟨Stef Peeters · AS Eupen
90'🟨Isaac Nuhu · AS Eupen
90'🟨Kristof D'Haene · Kortrijk

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots14
5On target3
8Corners4
16Fouls7
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS EupenKortrijk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.580.64
cards avg (last 5)3.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadion am Kehrweg
coach days94.002.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-7.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.8010.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.002.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.692.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.05
dominance (last 5)0.500.28
elo1446.631423.43
elo momentum (last 5)-4.96-16.50
eye test v10.25-0.91
eye trend v1-0.150.02
first sub minute (last 10)58.4053.30
form points (last 5)6.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
keeper form v10.780.73
league points9.004.00
league rank11.0019.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)47.6041.40
rest days5.896.09
scorer concentration0.29β€”
season ppg1.290.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-12.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.007.60
skill v1-0.38-0.73
sot against avg (last 5)7.006.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.402.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.60
squad age24.8027.36
state index-0.31-0.99
sterile dominance v1-0.59-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.310.17
threat rate (last 5)0.290.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60