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Antwerp 4–2 St. Gilloise

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Wed, Aug 31, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Lardot

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win43%2.27
Draw30%3.25
Antwerp win27%3.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise +0.2550%1.93
Antwerp +0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽ (og)Bart Nieuwkoop · Antwerp
15'⚽Vincent Janssen · Antwerp
22'⚽Siebe Van Der Heyden · St. Gilloise
38'🟥Lazare Amani · St. Gilloise
42'⚽Sam Vines · Antwerp
45'⚽ (pen)Vincent Janssen · Antwerp
71'⚽Dennis Eckert · St. Gilloise
81'🟨Ritchie De Laet · Antwerp
86'🟥Oussama El Azzouzi · St. Gilloise
90'🟨Faris Haroun · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score1
10Shots8
4On target3
4Corners3
11Fouls10
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntwerpSt. Gilloise
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.640.64
cards avg (last 5)0.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBosuilstadion
coach days122.0091.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.603.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.806.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.662.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.17
dominance (last 5)0.460.62
elo1704.171707.41
elo momentum (last 5)14.45-9.02
eye test v10.130.49
eye trend v10.160.09
first sub minute (last 10)60.2061.10
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.780.74
league points18.0010.00
league rank2.007.00
matches since blank11.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4082.00
possession avg (last 5)56.0055.40
rest days3.293.08
scorer concentration0.430.20
season ppg3.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.205.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.6012.80
skill v11.010.84
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
squad age26.3626.09
state index0.660.45
sterile dominance v10.690.63
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00