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Waregem 1–4 Genk

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sun, Aug 14, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Visser

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win52%1.83
Waregem win24%4.00
Draw24%4.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk +0.553%1.82
Waregem +0.547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.50
Under37%2.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽ (pen)Bryan Heynen · Genk
25'⚽András Németh · Genk
27'🟨Borja López · Waregem
43'⚽Jelle Vossen · Waregem
44'⚽Bryan Heynen · Genk
47'🟨Moudou Tambedou · Waregem
52'⚽Daniel Muñoz · Genk
63'🟨Patrik Hrošovský · Genk
65'🟨Nicolas Rommens · Waregem
73'🟨Abdoulaye Sissako · Waregem
82'🟨Gerardo Arteaga · Genk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
15Shots15
6On target6
4Corners8
14Fouls16
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWaregemGenk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.740.80
cards avg (last 5)2.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueElindus Arena
coach days105.00105.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.20
corner diff avg (last 5)0.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.460.67
elo1464.731638.21
elo momentum (last 5)13.612.60
eye test v1-0.321.41
eye trend v10.190.37
first sub minute (last 10)59.0053.20
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.55
keeper form v10.800.61
league points5.006.00
league rank14.0011.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0081.20
possession avg (last 5)49.0051.60
rest days9.018.21
scorer concentration—0.38
season ppg1.251.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.408.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.0016.60
skill v1-0.200.53
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.107.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.3310.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.807.40
squad age26.2424.18
state index-0.180.55
sterile dominance v10.07-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.250.36
threat rate (last 5)0.220.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00