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Westerlo 4–2 Standard

← Jupiler Pro League 2022 · Sat, Aug 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo win50%1.92
Draw26%3.60
Standard win23%4.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo −0.551%1.92
Standard −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.91
Under49%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Denis Drăguş · Standard
20'🟨Jan Bernát · Westerlo
38'⚽Igor Vetokele · Westerlo
50'⚽Nene Dorgeles · Westerlo
60'🟨Konstantinos Laifis · Standard
63'⚽Abdoul Tapsoba · Standard
73'⚽ (og)Jacob Laursen · Westerlo
74'🟨Aleksandar Boljević · Standard
79'🟨Selim Amallah · Standard
87'🟨Cihan Çanak · Standard
90'🟨Thomas Van den Keybus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots12
5On target6
4Corners6
3Fouls11
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWesterloStandard
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.640.60
cards avg (last 5)1.003.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHet Kuipje
· Westerlo
90'🟨Selim Amallah · Standard
90'🟥Selim Amallah · Standard
90'⚽Noe Dussenne · Standard
90'⚽Lyle Foster · Westerlo
coach days408.0073.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)—0.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.541.71
defensive leak (last 5)—0.14
dominance (last 5)—0.39
elo1425.101498.99
elo momentum (last 5)-6.06-1.44
eye test v1-0.42-0.72
eye trend v1-0.410.47
first sub minute (last 10)60.5052.60
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.650.73
league points3.004.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0076.20
possession avg (last 5)50.6047.20
rest days6.006.10
season ppg0.751.33
shot diff avg (last 5)—-6.40
shots for avg (last 5)—8.60
skill v10.62-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.00
squad age26.5426.38
state index-0.88-0.41
sterile dominance v10.440.39
threat rate (last 10)0.240.19
threat rate (last 3)0.240.19
threat rate (last 5)0.230.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80