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Nimes 3–1 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2022 · Fri, Jun 2, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Toulliou

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win37%2.60
Sochaux win37%2.64
Draw26%3.72

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes +051%1.93
Sochaux +049%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.52
Under37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Malik Tchokounte · Nimes
29'⚽Ibrahim Sissoko · Sochaux
39'🟨Daylam Meddah · Sochaux
44'🟨Guessouma Fofana · Nimes
75'⚽Malik Tchokounte · Nimes
82'🟨Julien Megier · Nimes
85'🟨Nolan Galves · Sochaux
86'⚽ (pen)Rafiki Saïd · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots15
5On target6
3Corners5
16Fouls23
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.720.50
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Antonins
coach days213.001.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.02
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.573.09
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.38
elo1382.721498.05
elo momentum (last 5)-24.99-65.33
eye test v10.33-0.07
eye trend v1-0.150.17
first sub minute (last 10)55.5052.50
form points (last 5)4.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.571.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v1—0.71
league points36.0054.00
league rank20.009.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.007.00
matches since win4.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4086.00
possession avg (last 5)50.6055.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.22
season ppg0.921.38
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.207.60
skill v10.561.21
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
squad age25.2826.10
state index-0.86-1.18
sterile dominance v10.281.50
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.180.18
threat rate (last 5)0.240.14
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60