⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Rodez 2–3 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2022 · Fri, May 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win41%2.35
Pau FC win30%3.40
Draw29%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC −0.2551%1.89
Rodez −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.77
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Sébastien Cibois · Rodez
10'🟨Lionel Mpasi Nzau · Rodez
11'⚽ (pen)Yanis Begraoui · Pau FC
19'⚽Remy Boissier · Rodez
26'⚽Mayron George · Pau FC
29'🟨Abzi Diyaeddine · Pau FC
41'⚽Yanis Begraoui · Pau FC
74'⚽Wilitty Younoussa · Rodez
90'🟨Charles Boli · Pau FC
90'🟥Antoine Batisse · Pau FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
15Shots7
7On target5
6Corners0
17Fouls22
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.590.62
cards avg (last 5)0.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days176.001059.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.041.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.24
dominance (last 5)0.510.47
elo1462.361405.01
elo momentum (last 5)17.88-46.68
eye test v1-0.320.04
eye trend v1-0.300.11
first sub minute (last 10)68.7060.80
form points (last 5)6.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.603.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.820.70
league points47.0041.00
league rank15.0019.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.009.00
matches since win4.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8080.80
possession avg (last 5)38.6049.80
rest days7.076.07
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg1.241.08
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.4010.60
skill v1-0.890.37
sot against avg (last 5)2.806.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.20
squad age24.8527.80
state index0.09-1.16
sterile dominance v1-0.820.39
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.21
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40