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Caen 2–2 AS Saint-Étienne

← Ligue 2 2022 · Fri, May 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win41%2.38
AS Saint-Étienne win34%2.77
Draw25%3.96

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Saint-Étienne −0.2553%1.82
Caen −0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.48
Under36%2.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Ibrahima Wadji · AS Saint-Étienne
23'⚽Ibrahima Wadji · AS Saint-Étienne
30'🟨Emmanuel Ntim · Caen
57'🟨Aimen Moueffek · AS Saint-Étienne
82'🟨Gautier Larsonneur · AS Saint-Étienne
83'⚽Alexandre Mendy · Caen
85'⚽Samuel Essende · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
14Shots13
3On target6
6Corners3
13Fouls22
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenAS Saint-Étienne
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.670.59
cards avg (last 5)1.201.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days724.00329.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.903.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.15
dominance (last 5)0.630.52
elo1520.341551.75
elo momentum (last 5)15.1013.29
eye test v10.290.95
eye trend v1-0.060.04
first sub minute (last 10)57.5061.50
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.26
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.650.75
league points58.0056.00
league rank5.006.00
matches since blank2.0016.00
matches since clean sheet11.006.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6083.20
possession avg (last 5)53.0063.60
rest days6.076.07
scorer concentration0.290.18
season ppg1.531.47
shot diff avg (last 5)5.601.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.6017.00
skill v10.561.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.806.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.606.00
squad age27.5526.64
state index0.440.27
sterile dominance v10.120.79
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60