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Valenciennes 1–1 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, May 13, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Toulliou

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valenciennes win41%2.39
Draw31%3.20
Pau FC win29%3.32

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC −0.2552%1.87
Valenciennes −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Sessi D'Almeida · Pau FC
55'🟨Julien Masson · Valenciennes
66'⚽Adrian Grbić · Valenciennes
68'🟨Adrian Grbić · Valenciennes
74'🟨Mons Bassouamina · Pau FC
76'🟨Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC
79'⚽Mayron George · Pau FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots8
4On target3
6Corners2
11Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.610.70
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
coach days42.001046.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.121.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.17
dominance (last 5)0.430.47
elo1415.241420.40
elo momentum (last 5)-0.71-6.49
eye test v10.03-0.03
eye trend v1-0.410.18
first sub minute (last 10)62.4060.50
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.271.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.640.70
league points40.0040.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.007.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4076.80
possession avg (last 5)48.8045.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.160.26
season ppg1.111.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.2010.80
skill v10.09-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
squad age24.4127.44
state index-0.55-0.57
sterile dominance v10.33-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.210.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.20