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Caen 4–2 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, May 13, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win51%1.88
Draw27%3.68
Nimes win22%4.28

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen −0.552%1.88
Nimes −0.548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Maël de Gevigney · Nimes
52'⚽Thibault Vargas · Nimes
57'⚽ (pen)Alexandre Mendy · Caen
69'⚽Hianga'a M'Bock · Caen
76'🟨Godson Kyeremeh · Caen
82'🟨Mehdi Zerkane · Nimes
83'⚽ (pen)Alexandre Mendy · Caen
84'⚽Rafiki Saïd · Nimes
90'⚽Godson Kyeremeh · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots9
6On target4
3Corners4
12Fouls18
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.640.66
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days711.00193.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.802.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.853.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.18
dominance (last 5)0.590.52
elo1498.081415.44
elo momentum (last 5)-4.71-19.46
eye test v10.130.22
eye trend v1-0.150.41
first sub minute (last 10)59.8053.50
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.650.62
league points52.0036.00
league rank7.0020.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet9.005.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)50.8051.20
rest days7.177.00
scorer concentration0.300.21
season ppg1.441.00
shot diff avg (last 5)4.001.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.4013.00
skill v10.220.48
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age27.1926.54
state index-0.01-0.76
sterile dominance v10.020.15
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00