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Nimes 3–3 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, May 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win44%2.15
Draw29%3.27
Valenciennes win26%3.88

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes −0.2554%1.81
Valenciennes −0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.70
Over44%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Rafiki Saïd · Nimes
21'🟨Ilyes Hamache · Valenciennes
41'🟨Malik Tchokounte · Nimes
44'⚽Ilyes Hamache · Valenciennes
61'⚽Aymen Boutoutaou · Valenciennes
65'⚽Benoît Poulain · Nimes
70'⚽Aymen Boutoutaou · Valenciennes
71'⚽Nicolas Benezet · Nimes
86'🟨Jonathan Buatu · Valenciennes
90'🟨Steve Ambri · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots8
6On target4
7Corners1
15Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.52
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.680.59
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
coach days186.0035.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.782.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.42
elo1417.251413.42
elo momentum (last 5)0.99-12.23
eye test v10.360.36
eye trend v10.09-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)54.8064.50
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.66—
league points35.0039.00
league rank20.0017.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8078.40
possession avg (last 5)51.2048.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.17
season ppg1.001.11
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.809.20
skill v10.370.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.80
squad age26.7825.03
state index-0.04-0.58
sterile dominance v10.140.27
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00