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Valenciennes 4–5 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Apr 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Angoula

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win42%2.26
Draw30%3.30
Valenciennes win29%3.67

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valenciennes +0.2550%1.97
Paris FC +0.2550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.61
Over41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Adrian Grbić · Valenciennes
33'⚽Morgan Guilavogui · Paris FC
38'⚽Morgan Guilavogui · Paris FC
40'🟨Julien Masson · Valenciennes
43'🟨Morgan Guilavogui · Paris FC
45'⚽Adrian Grbić · Valenciennes
58'⚽Morgan Guilavogui · Paris FC
62'⚽Mohamed Kaba · Valenciennes
72'🟨Quentin Lecoeuche · Valenciennes
80'⚽Yoan Koré · Paris FC
85'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
8Shots20
7On target10
4Corners5
12Fouls10
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.580.82
cards avg (last 5)1.600.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
Jonathan Buatu
· Valenciennes
90'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · Paris FC
coach days0.00669.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.132.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.440.53
elo1425.651496.13
elo momentum (last 5)-1.336.84
eye test v1-0.640.48
eye trend v1-0.03-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)65.0054.60
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.570.70
league points35.0040.00
league rank16.009.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.4083.60
possession avg (last 5)43.8057.80
rest days13.9613.96
scorer concentration0.140.33
season ppg1.171.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.201.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.4012.00
skill v1-1.201.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.20
squad age26.0230.31
state index-0.540.08
sterile dominance v1-0.441.00
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.210.16
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80