⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Annecy 1–1 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Mar 18, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Angoula

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win35%2.81
Annecy win34%2.91
Draw31%3.10

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp +051%1.91
Annecy +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Dion Moise Sahi · Annecy
23'⚽ (og)Francois Lajugie · Guingamp
77'🟥Francois Lajugie · Annecy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots6
3On target5
9Corners1
6Fouls7
0Yellow cards0
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnnecyGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.640.66
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueParc des Sports
coach days686.00686.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.403.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.13
dominance (last 5)0.460.53
elo1476.391460.14
elo momentum (last 5)-27.4830.29
eye test v1-0.270.21
eye trend v1-0.290.13
first sub minute (last 10)56.0063.80
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.620.73
league points35.0037.00
league rank15.0012.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4073.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8047.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.350.17
season ppg1.251.28
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.6010.20
skill v1-0.33-0.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
squad age26.7725.44
state index-0.620.21
sterile dominance v10.21-0.04
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.160.23
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40