← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Mar 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Petit
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 40% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.10 |
| Valenciennes win | 29% | 3.45 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Bastia +0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.52 |
| Over | 37% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Frank Magri · Bastia |
| 15' | 🟨 | Mathieu Debuchy · Valenciennes |
| 25' | ⚽ | Adrian Grbić · Valenciennes |
| 30' | 🟨 | Allan Linguet · Valenciennes |
| 48' | ⚽ | Adrian Grbić · Valenciennes |
| 69' | ⚽ | Frank Magri · Bastia |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mathis Picouleau · Valenciennes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valenciennes | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade du Hainaut |
| coach days | 1379.00 | 526.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1431.66 | 1507.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.83 | -5.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| league points | 34.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.24 | 27.64 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |