⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Sochaux 1–1 Bordeaux

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Mar 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Lepaysant

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win40%2.41
Bordeaux win30%3.32
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bordeaux −0.2552%1.85
Sochaux −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽Dilane Bakwa · Bordeaux
40'⚽Gaetan Weissbeck · Sochaux
63'🟨Moussa Doumbia · Sochaux
75'🟨Vital Nsimba · Bordeaux
90'🟨Ismaël Aaneba · Sochaux
90'🟨Aliou Badji · Bordeaux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots12
3On target3
3Corners2
14Fouls19
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxBordeaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.52
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.510.60
cards avg (last 5)1.200.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal
coach days283.00403.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.902.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.52
elo1590.121576.45
elo momentum (last 5)8.532.43
eye test v10.070.93
eye trend v1-0.33-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)64.6061.40
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.840.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.55
keeper form v10.770.68
league points47.0049.00
league rank4.002.00
matches since blank0.0010.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4081.40
possession avg (last 5)51.8053.00
rest days4.767.00
scorer concentration0.230.18
season ppg1.681.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.40
skill v10.370.63
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.00
squad age26.8925.27
state index0.370.29
sterile dominance v10.380.44
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.180.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00