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Niort 2–3 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Mar 4, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win43%2.25
Draw31%3.15
Rodez win26%3.68

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort −0.2551%1.91
Rodez −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.61
Over41%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Junior Olaitan · Niort
24'⚽ (pen)Bradley Danger · Rodez
31'⚽ (og)Bryan Passi · Rodez
45'🟨Abdel Hakim Abdallah · Rodez
79'⚽Junior Flemmings · Niort
87'⚽Lucas Buades · Rodez
88'🟨Remy Boissier · Rodez
88'🟨Antoine Valerio · Rodez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
18Shots13
6On target6
6Corners3
12Fouls11
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.510.70
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René Gaillard
coach days3.0093.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.60-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.351.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.350.44
elo1384.311387.64
elo momentum (last 5)6.93-14.07
eye test v1-0.26-0.32
eye trend v1-0.170.00
first sub minute (last 10)61.9057.60
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.750.70
league points24.0023.00
league rank19.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0076.20
possession avg (last 5)40.4049.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.280.31
season ppg0.920.88
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.20-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.8011.40
skill v1-0.58-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)7.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.60
squad age26.1225.53
state index-0.58-0.88
sterile dominance v1-0.42-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00