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Sochaux 1–2 Caen

← Ligue 2 2022 · Fri, Jan 20, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Souifi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win42%2.30
Draw31%3.12
Caen win27%3.64

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux −0.2550%1.93
Caen −0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.61
Over40%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Moussa Doumbia · Sochaux
26'🟨Franck Kanouté · Sochaux
58'🟨Quentin Daubin · Caen
64'⚽ (pen)Alexandre Mendy · Caen
76'🟨Ismaël Aaneba · Sochaux
89'⚽Bilal Brahimi · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots10
3On target2
3Corners4
17Fouls15
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.490.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.530.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.490.69
cards avg (last 5)3.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal
coach days233.00598.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.262.53
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.490.54
elo1569.221475.81
elo momentum (last 5)-18.19-5.69
eye test v10.53-0.30
eye trend v1-0.260.20
first sub minute (last 10)64.4057.00
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v1—0.66
league points31.0025.00
league rank4.0012.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2080.80
possession avg (last 5)55.8052.20
rest days9.919.91
scorer concentration0.230.33
season ppg1.631.32
shot diff avg (last 5)0.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.6011.00
skill v10.880.52
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
squad age27.9826.35
state index0.09-0.41
sterile dominance v10.990.56
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.170.22
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40