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Laval 3–1 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2022 · Fri, Jan 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval win43%2.23
Draw31%3.10
Rodez win26%3.92

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval −0.2551%1.90
Rodez −0.2549%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.57
Over39%2.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Geoffray Durbant · Laval
34'🟥Clément Depres · Rodez
39'🟥Bryan Goncalves · Laval
45'🟨Lorenzo Rajot · Rodez
49'⚽Antonin Bobichon · Laval
50'🟨Andy Pembélé · Rodez
55'🟨Loris Mouyokolo · Rodez
62'🟨Edson Seidou · Laval
75'⚽Joseph Mendes · Rodez
78'⚽Marvin Baudry · Laval

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots11
4On target4
2Corners5
16Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLavalRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.660.63
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis Le Basser
coach days1292.0043.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.09
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.11
dominance (last 5)0.470.51
elo1386.301426.29
elo momentum (last 5)-23.8514.37
eye test v1-0.70-0.93
eye trend v1-0.780.76
first sub minute (last 10)59.4053.30
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.05
keeper form v10.540.76
league points23.0020.00
league rank15.0018.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2075.60
possession avg (last 5)48.0045.80
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.300.31
season ppg1.211.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.009.40
skill v1-0.07-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.802.10
sot for avg (last 3)1.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.60
squad age29.4825.04
state index-0.87-0.17
sterile dominance v10.010.02
threat rate (last 10)0.230.18
threat rate (last 3)0.160.23
threat rate (last 5)0.230.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00