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Caen 2–0 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2022 Β· Sat, Oct 22, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: G. Paradis

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win59%1.63
Draw26%3.80
Rodez win16%6.38

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen βˆ’0.7553%1.81
Rodez βˆ’0.7547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.22

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'πŸŸ₯Abdel Hakim Abdallah Β· Rodez
49'🟨Quentin Daubin · Caen
57'🟨Ali Abdi · Caen
68'⚽Alexandre Mendy · Caen
71'⚽Samuel Essende · Caen
86'🟨Emmanuel Ntim · Caen
87'🟨Joris Chougrani · Rodez

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots5
6On target1
8Corners2
15Fouls13
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.630.64
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days508.002670.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.372.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.11
dominance (last 5)0.640.39
elo1471.041422.37
elo momentum (last 5)-56.0714.80
eye test v1-0.22-1.39
eye trend v1-0.38-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)49.0056.50
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.00
keeper form v10.650.80
league points18.0013.00
league rank9.0019.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6079.80
possession avg (last 5)51.4044.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.33
season ppg1.381.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.40-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.806.80
skill v10.54-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.331.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.601.80
squad age26.7925.47
state index-0.66-0.42
sterile dominance v10.220.61
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.200.12
threat rate (last 5)0.250.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60