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Le Havre AC 3–0 Bastia

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Oct 8, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Landry

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win49%1.94
Draw30%3.30
Bastia win21%4.69

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC −0.550%1.94
Bastia −0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.59

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Gautier Lloris · Le Havre AC
33'⚽Quentin Cornette · Le Havre AC
45'🟨Victor Lekhal · Le Havre AC
45'🟨Anthony Robic · Bastia
48'⚽Victor Lekhal · Le Havre AC
54'🟨Tom Ducrocq · Bastia
67'🟨Yann Kitala · Le Havre AC
72'🟨Mamadou Camara · Bastia
89'🟨Zakaria Diallo · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots5
7On target2
5Corners2
13Fouls13
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACBastia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.670.65
cards avg (last 5)2.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
coach days129.00372.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.122.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.11
dominance (last 5)0.640.53
elo1524.181509.15
elo momentum (last 5)43.3421.12
eye test v10.10-0.61
eye trend v1-0.25-0.39
first sub minute (last 10)59.7066.20
form points (last 5)13.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.841.40
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.600.57
league points19.0016.00
league rank4.007.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8072.40
possession avg (last 5)57.4043.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.25
season ppg1.901.60
shot diff avg (last 5)5.000.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.609.00
skill v11.22-0.80
sot against avg (last 5)0.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
squad age25.0427.49
state index0.750.16
sterile dominance v11.05-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.170.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40