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Niort 0–1 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Sep 10, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Perreau Niel

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win47%2.06
Draw30%3.25
Niort win23%4.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort +0.552%1.90
Le Havre AC +0.548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Lenny Vallier · Niort
53'🟨Bryan Passi · Niort
54'⚽ (pen)Victor Lekhal · Le Havre AC
79'🟨Amir Richardson · Le Havre AC
90'🟨Guy-Marcelin Kilama · Niort
90'🟨Alois Confais · Le Havre AC
90'🟨Elies Mahmoud · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots6
1On target2
6Corners4
13Fouls18
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.620.68
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René Gaillard
coach days40.00101.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.204.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.807.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.423.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.14
dominance (last 5)0.420.69
elo1411.541503.64
elo momentum (last 5)-4.3549.00
eye test v1-0.020.97
eye trend v10.100.42
first sub minute (last 10)59.9062.00
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.78
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v1—0.57
league points8.0012.00
league rank15.007.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet13.003.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0085.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0058.00
rest days7.937.93
scorer concentration—0.25
season ppg1.001.71
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.607.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.0014.00
skill v10.581.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.006.20
squad age25.3125.57
state index-0.840.73
sterile dominance v10.620.80
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.200.26
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.20