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Pau FC 2–2 AS Saint-Étienne

← Ligue 2 2022 · Mon, Sep 5, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Saint-Étienne win49%1.95
Draw27%3.62
Pau FC win24%4.21

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Saint-Étienne +0.551%1.92
Pau FC +0.549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.81
Over46%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Abdoulaye Bakayoko · AS Saint-Étienne
27'🟨Benjamin Bouchouari · AS Saint-Étienne
34'⚽Louis Mouton · AS Saint-Étienne
36'🟨Sessi D'Almeida · Pau FC
63'🟥Etienne Green · AS Saint-Étienne
68'⚽Henri Saivet · Pau FC
70'🟨Yvann Maçon · AS Saint-Étienne
77'🟨Sergi Palencia · AS Saint-Étienne
79'⚽Henri Saivet · Pau FC
83'🟨Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC
85'⚽ (pen)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots5
2On target2
5Corners0
13Fouls14
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPau FCAS Saint-Étienne
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.650.60
cards avg (last 5)1.603.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Nouste Camp
Lenny Pintor
· AS Saint-Étienne
90'🟨Lenny Pintor · AS Saint-Étienne
coach days796.0066.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.843.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.18
dominance (last 5)0.350.52
elo1408.641525.29
elo momentum (last 5)-25.35-20.14
eye test v1-1.190.46
eye trend v10.10-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)53.5054.10
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
league points3.007.00
league rank21.0014.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2083.00
possession avg (last 5)42.4053.40
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration—0.56
season ppg0.431.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.800.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.4010.60
skill v1-0.440.80
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)1.805.20
squad age27.1125.02
state index-1.21-0.35
sterile dominance v10.260.81
threat rate (last 10)0.190.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.20
threat rate (last 5)0.160.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.80