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Sochaux 4–1 Laval

← Ligue 2 2022 · Fri, Sep 2, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Toulliou

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win50%1.91
Draw28%3.43
Laval win21%4.90

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux −0.553%1.85
Laval −0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Julien Maggiotti · Laval
35'🟨Yasser Balde · Laval
39'🟨Yasser Balde · Laval
39'🟥Yasser Balde · Laval
45'🟨Moussa Doumbia · Sochaux
45'⚽Gaetan Weissbeck · Sochaux
72'⚽Moussa Doumbia · Sochaux
77'🟨Maxime Do Couto · Sochaux
81'⚽Tony Mauricio · Sochaux
83'⚽Maxime Do Couto · Sochaux
84'🟨Julien Maggiotti · Laval

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
23Shots12
7On target4
11Corners6
14Fouls10
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxLaval
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
box share (last 5)0.560.65
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal
coach days93.001159.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.492.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.520.43
elo1580.921376.15
elo momentum (last 5)8.99-10.19
eye test v10.42-0.31
eye trend v10.300.41
first sub minute (last 10)60.4061.80
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.50
keeper form v10.870.63
league points10.007.00
league rank9.0014.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6074.40
possession avg (last 5)55.2049.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.290.50
season ppg1.671.17
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.40
skill v10.97-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
squad age28.3230.83
state index0.42-0.78
sterile dominance v10.670.17
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20