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Grenoble 3–2 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2022 · Tue, Aug 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win45%2.18
Draw30%3.13
Nimes win25%3.91

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble −0.2553%1.84
Nimes −0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.61
Over41%2.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Abdoulie Sanyang · Grenoble
57'🟨Ronny Labonne · Nimes
61'⚽Joris Correa · Grenoble
76'⚽Malik Tchokounte · Nimes
81'⚽Pape Meissa Ba · Grenoble
90'🟨Jordy Gaspar · Grenoble
90'🟨Elías Már Ómarsson · Nimes
90'⚽ (pen)Malik Tchokounte · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots16
5On target4
3Corners5
12Fouls15
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.680.69
cards avg (last 5)3.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days272.00575.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.020.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.202.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.622.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.06
dominance (last 5)0.410.45
elo1460.651471.21
elo momentum (last 5)4.02-2.26
eye test v1-0.84-0.36
eye trend v1-0.390.15
first sub minute (last 10)50.8057.30
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.880.73
league points6.007.00
league rank13.0010.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8080.20
possession avg (last 5)48.2046.20
rest days3.073.07
season ppg1.201.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.6010.40
skill v1-0.360.08
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)1.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
squad age26.4825.19
state index-0.27-0.13
sterile dominance v10.450.09
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.120.28
threat rate (last 5)0.160.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40