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Guingamp 1–2 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2022 · Tue, Aug 30, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win37%2.68
Draw32%3.10
Sochaux win31%3.11

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp +054%1.78
Sochaux +046%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.43

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Pierre Lemonnier · Guingamp
36'🟨Mathis Riou · Guingamp
37'⚽Abdallah Ndour · Sochaux
41'🟨Julien Faussurier · Sochaux
42'🟨Franck Kanouté · Sochaux
64'🟨Maxime Sivis · Guingamp
64'🟨Maxence Prévot · Sochaux
81'⚽Moussa Doumbia · Sochaux
90'🟨Aldo Kalulu · Sochaux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots9
7On target5
4Corners2
13Fouls17
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.500.55
cards avg (last 5)2.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days486.0090.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.871.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.04
dominance (last 5)0.440.61
elo1542.911569.98
elo momentum (last 5)14.26-3.71
eye test v1-0.070.06
eye trend v1-0.570.27
first sub minute (last 10)65.4060.10
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.32
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.50
keeper form v10.740.89
league points10.007.00
league rank6.0014.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0084.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2057.20
rest days3.243.07
scorer concentration0.380.40
season ppg2.001.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.603.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.6012.80
skill v10.811.18
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.504.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
squad age27.8627.98
state index0.400.41
sterile dominance v10.900.82
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.180.25
threat rate (last 5)0.180.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40