⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Laval 3–3 Metz

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Aug 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Lepaysant

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval win38%2.54
Metz win32%3.07
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval +055%1.78
Metz +045%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Ibrahima Niane · Metz
24'⚽William Mikelbrencis · Metz
33'⚽Zakaria Naidji · Laval
35'⚽Matthieu Udol · Metz
56'🟨Jimmy Roye · Laval
58'🟥Alexandre Oukidja · Metz
75'⚽Zakaria Naidji · Laval
87'🟨Anthony Gonçalves · Laval
87'🟨Kévin N'Doram · Metz
90'🟨Fabien Centonze · Metz
90'🟨Fabien Centonze · Metz
90'🟨Marc-Aurele Caillard · Metz
90'🟥Fabien Centonze · Metz
90'⚽Pape Djibril Diaw · Laval

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
19Shots11
8On target6
8Corners3
15Fouls10
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLavalMetz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
box share (last 5)0.700.61
cards avg (last 5)1.403.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis Le Basser
coach days1146.0080.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)—0.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.603.59
defensive leak (last 5)—0.05
dominance (last 5)—0.45
elo1393.241562.11
elo momentum (last 5)14.4514.79
eye test v1-0.69-0.33
eye trend v10.400.28
first sub minute (last 10)61.4051.90
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
keeper form v1—0.70
league points6.006.00
league rank8.005.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.0080.00
possession avg (last 5)43.8046.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg2.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)—-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)—13.00
skill v1-1.350.06
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.40
squad age30.5825.54
state index-0.440.02
sterile dominance v1-0.60-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.34
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.20