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Caen 4–1 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Aug 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Rainville

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win42%2.26
Draw31%3.12
Guingamp win27%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen −0.2551%1.91
Guingamp −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Maxime Barthelmé · Guingamp
12'🟨Stephen Quemper · Guingamp
18'⚽Emmanuel Ntim · Caen
19'⚽Alexandre Mendy · Caen
49'🟨Bilal Brahimi · Caen
52'⚽Samuel Essende · Caen
66'🟨Romain Thomas · Caen
66'🟨Anthony Mandrea · Caen
66'🟨Yoann Cathline · Guingamp
66'🟨Jérémy Livolant · Guingamp
76'⚽ (pen)Benjamin Jeannot · Caen
78'🟨Souleymane Diarra · Guingamp
79'🟥Souleymane Diarra · Guingamp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
19Shots13
9On target7
6Corners5
16Fouls14
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.650.58
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days445.00476.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.162.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.04
dominance (last 5)0.550.51
elo1509.841546.73
elo momentum (last 5)13.5336.36
eye test v1-0.050.55
eye trend v1-0.17-0.67
first sub minute (last 10)62.0061.50
form points (last 5)10.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.730.71
league points7.007.00
league rank5.004.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4087.20
possession avg (last 5)49.6053.20
rest days7.007.17
scorer concentration—0.33
season ppg2.332.33
shot diff avg (last 5)2.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.60
skill v10.231.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.00
squad age26.8127.04
state index0.300.76
sterile dominance v10.020.56
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.310.18
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.60