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AS Saint-Étienne 0–6 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Aug 20, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Saint-Étienne win44%2.17
Draw29%3.40
Le Havre AC win27%3.92

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Saint-Étienne −0.2553%1.83
Le Havre AC −0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Lenny Pintor · AS Saint-Étienne
27'🟨Anthony Briançon · AS Saint-Étienne
31'🟨Anthony Briançon · AS Saint-Étienne
31'🟥Anthony Briançon · AS Saint-Étienne
37'🟨Jimmy Giraudon · AS Saint-Étienne
37'🟥Mathieu Cafaro · AS Saint-Étienne
43'🟨Amir Richardson · Le Havre AC
51'⚽Arouna Sangante · Le Havre AC
56'⚽Nabil Alioui · Le Havre AC
64'⚽Victor Lekhal · Le Havre AC
66'🟥

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots16
1On target8
5Corners8
9Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
3Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAS Saint-ÉtienneLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.29
box share (last 5)0.580.55
cards avg (last 5)0.200.00
coach days50.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Geoffroy-Guichard
Etienne Green · AS Saint-Étienne
80'⚽Christopher Operi · Le Havre AC
84'⚽Christopher Operi · Le Havre AC
87'🟨Christopher Operi · Le Havre AC
89'⚽Yann Kitala · Le Havre AC
80.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)3.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.452.67
elo1481.981414.33
elo momentum (last 5)-18.24-26.55
eye test v10.45-0.37
eye trend v10.01-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)58.1064.60
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.74
keeper form v10.580.51
league points2.002.00
league rank14.0016.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet13.002.00
matches since win9.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4086.20
possession avg (last 5)57.0057.40
rest days4.766.83
season ppg0.670.67
skill v10.971.35
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.00
state index-0.82-0.96
sterile dominance v10.631.14
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.18
threat rate (last 5)0.240.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20