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Guingamp 4–0 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2022 · Sat, Jul 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win51%1.84
Draw28%3.63
Pau FC win21%4.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC −0.7555%1.79
Guingamp −0.7545%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Jérémy Livolant · Guingamp
29'🟨Antoine Batisse · Pau FC
32'⚽Jules Gaudin · Guingamp
34'⚽Mehdi Merghem · Guingamp
44'🟨Mayron George · Pau FC
52'⚽Jules Gaudin · Guingamp
55'🟨Steeve Beusnard · Pau FC
57'🟨Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC
62'🟨Dylan Louiserre · Guingamp
68'🟨Abzi Diyaeddine · Pau FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
11Shots10
7On target5
2Corners3
8Fouls18
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.690.67
cards avg (last 5)1.200.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days455.00759.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.602.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.352.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.18
dominance (last 5)0.590.53
elo1528.651445.88
elo momentum (last 5)39.0720.36
eye test v11.55-0.62
eye trend v10.410.37
first sub minute (last 10)60.3055.10
form points (last 5)13.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
keeper form v10.690.65
matches since blank12.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.0014.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6082.80
possession avg (last 5)55.0051.80
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)6.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)19.4011.20
skill v11.140.68
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.702.70
sot for avg (last 3)7.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)7.002.60
squad age26.5426.09
state index0.890.19
sterile dominance v1-0.260.55
threat rate (last 10)0.300.20
threat rate (last 3)0.390.20
threat rate (last 5)0.360.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.80