← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, May 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 60% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.97 |
| Karlsruhe win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −1 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Karlsruhe −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 1.39 |
| Under | 31% | 3.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Lucas Cueto · Karlsruhe |
| 44' | 🟨 | Karol Mets · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 58' | ⚽ | Leart Paqarada · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Paul Nebel · Karlsruhe |
| 77' | 🟨 | Luca Zander · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 178.00 | 1212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1594.53 | 1491.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.00 | -0.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 57.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 8.88 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 30.12 |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |