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Hannover 1–5 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, May 28, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Thomsen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win47%2.01
Holstein Kiel win31%3.21
Draw22%4.55

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.2553%1.85
Holstein Kiel −0.2547%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over74%1.29
Under26%3.81

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Fabian Reese · Holstein Kiel
23'⚽Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel
45'⚽Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel
57'🟨Philipp Sander · Holstein Kiel
59'⚽Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel
62'⚽Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel
72'⚽Phil Neumann · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
9Shots14
1On target8
6Corners2
6Fouls11
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.700.64
cards avg (last 5)1.601.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz von Heiden-Arena
coach days331.00604.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.652.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.20
dominance (last 5)0.470.43
elo1474.361465.40
elo momentum (last 5)43.27-34.76
eye test v10.560.22
eye trend v10.050.32
first sub minute (last 10)55.0056.60
form points (last 5)10.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.63—
league points44.0043.00
league rank9.0010.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8082.80
possession avg (last 5)48.6055.60
rest days7.088.88
scorer concentration0.280.29
season ppg1.331.30
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.80
skill v1-0.060.92
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.60
squad age26.2229.65
state index0.40-0.84
sterile dominance v1-0.140.82
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.290.25
threat rate (last 5)0.260.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00