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Hamburger SV 2–1 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, May 20, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win66%1.45
Draw20%5.12
Greuther Furth win14%6.85

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV −1.2551%1.93
Greuther Furth −1.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over69%1.40
Under31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV
27'⚽Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV
45'🟨Gideon Jung · Greuther Furth
67'🟨Gian-Luca Itter · Greuther Furth
69'⚽ (pen)László Bénes · Hamburger SV
82'🟨Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV
84'⚽Lukas Petkov · Greuther Furth
86'🟨Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV
87'🟨Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV
87'🟥Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots16
3On target3
1Corners7
18Fouls12
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHamburger SVGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.710.55
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVolksparkstadion
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV
90'🟥Dickson Abiama · Greuther Furth
0.80
coach days688.00323.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.403.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.207.60
corners volatility (last 10)5.022.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.14
dominance (last 5)0.470.50
elo1610.381464.85
elo momentum (last 5)-17.60-26.38
eye test v10.250.18
eye trend v10.04-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)60.7053.40
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.960.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.630.69
league points60.0038.00
league rank3.0012.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.005.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0077.60
possession avg (last 5)56.4060.40
rest days6.297.31
scorer concentration0.310.23
season ppg1.881.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.6013.00
skill v10.810.77
sot against avg (last 5)5.805.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.60
squad age26.9527.15
state index0.23-0.61
sterile dominance v10.760.89
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80