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Braunschweig 1–2 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 Β· Sat, May 20, 11:00 AM UTC Β· ref: M. Burda

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win43%2.25
Regensburg win29%3.35
Draw28%3.51

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig βˆ’0.2550%1.94
Regensburg βˆ’0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Immanuel Pherai · Braunschweig
21'⚽Charalambos Makridis · Regensburg
32'🟨Leon Guwara · Regensburg
35'🟨Christian Viet · Regensburg
42'🟨Scott Kennedy · Regensburg
49'⚽Prince-Osei Owusu · Regensburg
51'🟨Jannis Nikolaou · Braunschweig
70'🟨Charalambos Makridis · Regensburg
75'🟨Danilo Wiebe · Braunschweig
90'🟨Charalambos Makridis · Regensburg
90'πŸŸ₯

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots16
6On target5
8Corners5
11Fouls13
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.540.62
cards avg (last 5)2.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
Charalambos Makridis
Β· Regensburg
coach days718.0019.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)1.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.101.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.21
dominance (last 5)0.470.53
elo1413.821357.53
elo momentum (last 5)5.27-34.53
eye test v1-0.21-0.53
eye trend v10.14-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)56.1057.60
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
keeper form v10.640.60
league points36.0028.00
league rank14.0017.00
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win1.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4074.60
possession avg (last 5)38.2050.20
rest days7.005.98
scorer concentration0.270.23
season ppg1.130.88
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.001.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.0011.20
skill v1-1.38-0.15
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
squad age27.2226.14
state index-0.30-1.27
sterile dominance v1-1.400.05
threat rate (last 10)0.310.27
threat rate (last 3)0.300.23
threat rate (last 5)0.310.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60