⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Holstein Kiel 3–4 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, May 19, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win44%2.19
Holstein Kiel win31%3.04
Draw25%4.11

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.2551%1.93
Holstein Kiel +0.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over66%1.46
Under34%2.83

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽ (pen)Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel
39'⚽Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910
45'🟨Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel
53'⚽ (og)Hauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli 1910
61'⚽Lukas Daschner · FC St. Pauli 1910
65'🟨Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel
74'⚽Leart Paqarada · FC St. Pauli 1910
77'🟨Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910
78'⚽Marco Komenda · Holstein Kiel
87'🟨Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910
87'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots12
7On target5
9Corners5
12Fouls10
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHolstein KielFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.660.62
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHolstein-Stadion
🟥
Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Hauke Wahl · Holstein Kiel
90'🟨Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel
90'⚽Fabian Reese · Holstein Kiel
1.60
coach days595.00169.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.602.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.272.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.440.65
elo1473.911586.02
elo momentum (last 5)-19.604.64
eye test v10.201.04
eye trend v10.19-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)53.9065.10
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.41
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.620.76
league points43.0054.00
league rank9.004.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0081.40
possession avg (last 5)55.2054.00
rest days6.235.92
scorer concentration0.300.17
season ppg1.341.69
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.807.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.2018.00
skill v10.910.69
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.00
squad age29.6326.79
state index-0.580.51
sterile dominance v10.67-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.210.34
threat rate (last 5)0.230.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.40