← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, May 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Sather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 48% | 2.01 |
| Regensburg win | 28% | 3.54 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg +0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under | 36% | 2.69 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Thorsten Kirschbaum · Regensburg |
| 4' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 29' | ⚽ | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 49' | 🟨 | Steve Breitkreuz · Regensburg |
| 55' | ⚽ | Kaan Caliskaner · Regensburg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Scott Kennedy · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonas David · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 13.00 | 682.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 4.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1367.66 | 1600.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.20 | -19.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| league points | 28.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.88 | 27.20 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |