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Regensburg 1–5 Hamburger SV

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, May 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Sather

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win48%2.01
Regensburg win28%3.54
Draw25%4.01

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg +0.552%1.89
Hamburger SV +0.548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.50
Under36%2.69

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Thorsten Kirschbaum · Regensburg
4'⚽Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV
17'⚽ (pen)Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV
29'⚽Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV
45'⚽Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV
49'🟨Steve Breitkreuz · Regensburg
55'⚽Kaan Caliskaner · Regensburg
81'⚽Filip Bilbija · Hamburger SV
90'🟨Scott Kennedy · Regensburg
90'🟨Jonas David · Hamburger SV

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score4
13Shots15
6On target8
6Corners4
13Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgHamburger SV
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.570.69
cards avg (last 5)2.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJahnstadion Regensburg
coach days13.00682.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.602.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.434.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.19
dominance (last 5)0.500.51
elo1367.661600.24
elo momentum (last 5)-25.20-19.17
eye test v1-0.550.26
eye trend v1-0.530.06
first sub minute (last 10)62.0059.90
form points (last 5)2.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.81
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.670.62
league points28.0057.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6081.20
possession avg (last 5)50.8055.60
rest days8.028.79
scorer concentration0.200.32
season ppg0.901.84
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.6012.00
skill v1-0.110.78
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.80
squad age25.8827.20
state index-0.93-0.08
sterile dominance v10.210.65
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.170.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40