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SV Sandhausen 1–2 Hansa Rostock

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, May 12, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hansa Rostock win36%2.75
SV Sandhausen win34%2.85
Draw30%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hansa Rostock +051%1.92
SV Sandhausen +049%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Nils Fröling · Hansa Rostock
33'🟨Lukas Fröde · Hansa Rostock
37'⚽ (pen)Kai Pröger · Hansa Rostock
40'🟨Erik Zenga · SV Sandhausen
42'🟨Alexander Esswein · SV Sandhausen
54'⚽Janik Bachmann · SV Sandhausen
58'🟨Franck Evina · SV Sandhausen
74'🟨John Verhoek · Hansa Rostock

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots10
2On target4
7Corners5
11Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenHansa Rostock
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.660.62
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
1.60
coach days41.0072.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.14
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.408.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.563.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.360.40
elo1376.791401.23
elo momentum (last 5)4.3229.91
eye test v1-0.59-0.78
eye trend v10.510.23
first sub minute (last 10)50.9055.70
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.620.70
league points28.0034.00
league rank18.0015.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet16.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.2061.60
possession avg (last 5)39.8035.80
rest days5.216.23
scorer concentration0.180.35
season ppg0.901.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.40-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.409.40
skill v1-1.65-2.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.00
squad age28.6228.37
state index-0.60-0.21
sterile dominance v1-0.63-1.48
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.210.29
threat rate (last 5)0.200.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80