← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, May 6, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 55% | 1.74 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 23% | 4.33 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 1.40 |
| Under | 32% | 3.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 19' | ⚽ | Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Ginczek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 63' | 🟨 | Hauke Wahl · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 459.00 | 582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1546.99 | 1476.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.52 | -20.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 50.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.91 | 28.97 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |