← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, May 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 49% | 2.02 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 27% | 3.56 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Hamburger SV −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.51 |
| Under | 36% | 2.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 39' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 43' | ⚽ | Julian Justvan · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 55' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 72' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Niclas Tibor Nadj · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 86' | 🟨 | László Bénes · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 673.00 | 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.06 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1603.46 | 1547.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.34 | 14.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 56.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 25.98 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |