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SV Sandhausen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sun, Apr 23, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Stieler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win59%1.63
Draw23%4.31
SV Sandhausen win18%5.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen +153%1.85
SC Paderborn 07 +147%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Florent Muslija · SC Paderborn 07
22'🟨Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07
27'⚽Maximilian Rohr · SC Paderborn 07
29'🟨Aleksandr Zhirov · SV Sandhausen
31'⚽Kemal Ademi · SV Sandhausen
48'⚽Franck Evina · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
6Shots12
3On target3
3Corners3
16Fouls13
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.190.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.690.67
cards avg (last 5)3.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
1.20
coach days22.00661.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.842.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.08
dominance (last 5)0.340.60
elo1372.921541.13
elo momentum (last 5)-19.31-6.41
eye test v1-1.120.46
eye trend v10.680.00
first sub minute (last 10)50.7054.20
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.610.76
league points24.0046.00
league rank18.006.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet13.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4083.00
possession avg (last 5)37.0060.60
rest days8.028.02
scorer concentration0.210.23
season ppg0.861.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.005.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.8016.40
skill v1-1.551.26
sot against avg (last 5)6.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.205.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.80
squad age27.2025.83
state index-1.100.16
sterile dominance v1-1.020.63
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.29
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.00