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Bielefeld 1–3 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Apr 22, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Kampka

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win53%1.84
Draw25%3.91
Hannover win22%4.34

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.7553%1.83
Bielefeld −0.7547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Cedric Teuchert · Hannover
22'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
41'🟨Marc Rzatkowski · Bielefeld
42'⚽ (pen)Cedric Teuchert · Hannover
54'🟨Manuel Prietl · Bielefeld
55'⚽Louis Schaub · Hannover
82'🟨Bright Arrey-Mbi · Hannover
86'🟥Yannik Lührs · Hannover
90'🟨Sebastian Vasiliadis · Bielefeld
90'🟨Derrick Köhn · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
14Shots7
5On target4
4Corners6
14Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.630.78
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchücoArena
coach days52.00295.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.007.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.451.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.15
dominance (last 5)0.510.34
elo1496.701431.09
elo momentum (last 5)12.15-26.06
eye test v10.96-0.17
eye trend v1-0.12-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)60.4055.50
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.610.64
league points29.0034.00
league rank15.0011.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet12.0012.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)42.4052.00
rest days5.987.77
scorer concentration0.170.29
season ppg1.041.21
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-7.60
shots for avg (last 5)17.009.40
skill v1-0.88-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)5.406.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.20
squad age28.4926.80
state index-0.08-1.02
sterile dominance v1-1.740.49
threat rate (last 10)0.340.25
threat rate (last 3)0.400.23
threat rate (last 5)0.390.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40