← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Fri, Apr 21, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.00 |
| Karlsruhe win | 20% | 4.88 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Darmstadt −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 26' | ⚽ | Braydon Manu · Darmstadt |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 42' | 🟨 | Sebastian Jung · Karlsruhe |
| 50' | ⚽ | Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt |
| 82' | 🟨 | Klaus Gjasula · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 659.00 | 1175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1620.93 | 1491.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.69 | 19.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 58.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |