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Magdeburg 1–2 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Apr 15, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Thomsen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg win61%1.58
Draw22%4.35
SV Sandhausen win17%5.91

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen −150%1.94
Magdeburg −150%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Dario Đumić · SV Sandhausen
27'🟨Matondo-Merveille Papela · SV Sandhausen
58'🟨Alexander Esswein · SV Sandhausen
66'⚽Dario Đumić · SV Sandhausen
73'🟨Mo El Hankouri · Magdeburg
83'🟨Amara Condé · Magdeburg
83'🟨Franck Evina · SV Sandhausen
89'⚽Cristiano Piccini · Magdeburg
90'🟨Dario Đumić · SV Sandhausen
90'🟨Abu-Bekir Ömer El-Zein · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots8
6On target5
5Corners6
7Fouls25
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.20
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.09
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.540.72
cards avg (last 5)2.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMDCC-Arena
coach days803.0014.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.20
dominance (last 5)0.590.39
elo1425.811359.44
elo momentum (last 5)21.97-31.14
eye test v11.45-1.13
eye trend v10.000.19
first sub minute (last 10)48.3052.60
form points (last 5)8.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.84
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.750.61
league points32.0021.00
league rank12.0018.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0012.00
matches since win1.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6070.80
possession avg (last 5)63.0041.40
rest days5.985.98
scorer concentration0.240.23
season ppg1.190.78
shot diff avg (last 5)5.80-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)17.009.20
skill v11.56-1.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.202.10
sot for avg (last 3)7.331.67
sot for avg (last 5)7.402.40
squad age26.0827.01
state index0.15-1.44
sterile dominance v10.82-0.66
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80