← 2. Bundesliga 2022 · Sat, Apr 8, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: W. Haslberger
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 41% | 2.40 |
| Nurnberg win | 30% | 3.23 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.32 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Karlsruhe +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand